Oh Brother (or sister), Where Art Thou?

I am sympathetic to print agents and publishers in their crumbling environment undermined by the superior economics and streamlined process of e-publishing. They’re fighting a rearguard action. Likewise, I am sympathetic to those who are marketing/promotion gurus for fiction works of general interest, especially when clients want cause/effect proof that their counsel will provide sales.

Why do I care? Because I am one of those potential clients. As a potential client of marketing for my book, I want a linear connection between my investment in services and the result of those services. My sympathy comes from recognizing the reality of the variables that can poleax predictions. Consider these factors:

• As the stock traders say, ‘past performance is no guarantee of future results’. The success of another book will not necessarily translate to similar performance for my book.
• The readers of general fiction – mine is an action/adventure tale – are fickle. It is hard to predict what will catch their fancy at any particular time.
• There is MUCH competition.
• Insufficient hard evidence is available. Although a promotion consultant can recite with accuracy how many press releases, blog tours, placements, etc. they have done – in other words, those things within their control – they do not necessarily have access to the numbers of books actually sold.
• The marketing service providers rightly cite a) the quality of the book and b) the diligence of the author in doing his/her part by blogging, presenting, signing, etc. as variables over which they can’t claim control.

So, in interviewing marketing counselors, I am given proposals for the cost of providing various actions but no claims or guarantees for what sales they might produce. I know I need help and am willing to pay for it but what can I reasonably expect to receive in return?